硕士英语综合教程1（部分课文英汉对译）

Unit 1

Creating a Low-Carbon Economy 创建低碳生活 Overview 概述

1.There is no longer any real question that global warming is occurring as the result of the

rapid build-up of greenhouse gases primarily caused by human activities. We are on a trajectory for global warming to become much more intense unless we begin a concerted, rapid shift toward a low-carbon economy. And the danger is increasingly clear and present.

As Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, has said, ―If there‘s no action before 2012, that‘s too late. What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.‖

对于主要由人类活动而迅速积累的温室气体引发了全球变暖这一事实，没有人再持有异议。除非我们协同一致，快速转向低碳经济，否则全球变暖的趋势将会愈演愈烈。

这一危机日益彰显逼近。正如获得2007年诺贝尔和平奖的联合国间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）拉金德拉·帕乔里所声称的：“如果在2012年之前我们还没有采取行动，那就为时已晚了。我们在未来两到三年中的所作所为将决定我们的未来。这是决定性的时刻。”

2.The Earth‘s average temperature has already increased b y 0.8°C（about 1.4°F）over

pre-industrial levels, increasing at a rate of 0.2°C per decade since 1975, and without changing our course, we will lock several

more degrees of change into the system. Such temperature shifts may sound small, but they are not. During the last ice age, average global temperature was only about 5.4°C（about 9.7°F）colder than it is now.

同工业化前的水平相比，地球平均温度已经上升了0.8摄氏度（1.4华氏度左右），速度为自1975年以来每十年增加0.2摄氏度；如果我们仍然一意孤行，那么温度还会继续发生永久性的变化。这种温度变化听起来似乎不大，但事实并非如此。最后一个冰河时代时的全球平均气温不过比现今低约5.4摄氏度（9.7华氏度）。

3.Many of our leading climate scientists have warned that if we exceed 2.0°C（about 3.6°F）

above pre-industrial times, we will enter a dangerous, uncharted territory. No one knows at what precise temperature the effects of global warming become intolerably large, whether as

a result of gradual worsening of droughts, floods, hurricanes, and heat waves or as a result of

abrupt, catastrophic change, such as the collapse of the Greenland or West Antarctic ice sheets and the accompanying global swell in sea levels. But we are conducting a dangerous uncontrolled experiment with the only home we have. This is why young people in increasing numbers are starting to see climate change as the challenge of their generation.

很多权威的气候学家们都曾发出过这样的警告：如果我们现在的温度超过工业化前2摄氏度（3.6华氏度）的话，我们将会迈进一个危险的未知国度。没有人能知道到底全球变暖具体达到多少度会变得无法控制，并且造成像干旱、洪水、飓风以及热浪等自然灾害的逐渐恶化，造成诸如格陵兰岛或西南极洲大冰原坍塌以及伴随的全球海平面上升等意外的灾难性变化。但是我们还依然在我们唯一的家园上不断做着危险而又不受约束的尝试，这也是为什么越来越多的年轻人开始

将气候变化视为他们这一代人的一项挑战。

4.The Washington Post report ed in April that, ―For many children and young adults, global

warming is the atomic bomb of today. Fears of an environmental crisis are defining their generation in ways that the Depression, World War Ⅱ, Vietnam and the Cold War‘s lingering ?War Games‘ etched souls in the 20th century.‖

《华盛顿邮报》4月刊报导到：“对于许多儿童和青年而言，全球气候变暖无异于当今的原子弹。对于环境危机的担忧正影响着这一代人，正如经济大萧条、第二次世界大战、越南战争和冷战等等挥之不去的?战争游戏‘影响了20世纪的灵魂一样。”

5.Some of the dire projections may not occur, but in light of the warnings from our best

scientists, it would beyond irresponsible to take that bet. Scientists are telling us if we do not take action soon, it will be late to avoid the most serious consequences of global warming.

有些可怕的预测可能并不会发生，但考虑到那些最优秀的科学家们发出的警告，如果我们再冒险尝试将是极不负责任的做法。科学家告诉我们，如果我们不尽快采取行动，想要避免全球变暖引发的最严重恶果则为时晚矣。

Environment Costs 环境损失

6.The projected environment consequences of climate change are well known. The only thing

that keeps changing, with the steady drumbeat of new and better scientific data and analysis, is that the picture gets more and more seri ous. In the words of Harvard‘s John Holdren, one of our leading science policy thinkers, global climate change is the most dangerous of all environment problems because climate represents the envelope within which our natural systems

operate. By badly disrupting that envelope, we ―adversely affect every dimension of human well-being that is tied to the environment.‖

气候变化对环境所造成的后果预测众所周知。依据稳健可靠的优新科学数据分析，唯一保持不断变化的景象就是越来越糟的环境。作为首席科学专家之一，哈佛大学的约翰·霍尔德伦指出，在所有环境问题中全球气候变化是最危险的，因为气候就像一个信封，保障其中所有自然生态系统正常运作。如果这一包裹层遭到严重破坏，我们就会“对环境影响下人类福祉的每一个层面产生不利影响。”

7.The Fourth Assessment Report on Climate Change Impacts released in April 2007 by the

IPCC, the official body of over 2,000 scientists acting under the auspices of the United Nations, presents a stark picture. The IPCC report says that ―human induced climate change is already affecting physical and biological processes on all continen ts and some oceans.‖ Among other impacts, the report warns of:

在联合国的主持下，IPCC2000多名科学家组成的官方机构于2007年4月发布了关于气候变化影响的第四次评估报告，为人们展示了一幅鲜明的预警图。IPCC的报告声称“人类活动引起的气候变化已经影响到所有和一些海洋的物理及生物进程”。在诸多影响中，该报告尤其警告：

●Extreme weather events such as drought, floods, and severe storms, including

hurricanes, becoming more intense and inflicting greater damage to life and property.

极端天气事件，如干旱、洪水和严重的风暴，包括飓风，将变得更加严重，对生命和财产造成更大损害。

●Increasing hurricane intensity.（other recent scientific findings suggest that not just the

intensity but also the frequency of hurricanes is increasing

with rising sea-surface temperatures.）

飓风强度增加。（其他最新科学研究结果表明，不只是强度，飓风的频率也会增加，同时伴随海表面温度升高）。

●Rising sea levels threatening the mega-delta regions of Asia, coastal cities in Europe,

low-lying areas in North and Latin America, and small islands. The melting of the Greenland ice sheet alone could lead to a sea-level rise of seven meters.

海平面上升，威胁亚洲的大型三角洲地区、欧洲沿海城市、北美和拉丁美洲的低洼地区，及小岛屿。单是格陵兰冰原融化就可能导致海平面上升7米。

●Increased water scarcity facing 1 billion to 2 billion people. 水资源匮乏问题恶化，10亿至20亿人口面临缺水。

●Increased risk of heat- and flood-related mortality and of water and food-borne diseases.

发生高温及洪水造成死亡、水及食物传染疾病的风险增加。 ●Declining crop yields and increased hunger in some regions, including parts of Africa

and Asia.

作物产量下降，一些地区饥荒严重，包括非洲和亚洲的部分地区。 ●Degrading fisheries. 渔业不景气。

●Declining coral reef systems. 珊瑚礁系统退化。

●Extinction facing 20 percent to 30 percent of global plant and animal life.

全球20％至30％的植物和动物面临灭绝。 Economic Costs 经济损失

8.There is substantial uncertainty about the precise

economic costs of climate change, but if

we continue to our current path there is little doubt that overall they would be very large. A look at trend lines from the insurance industry gives a hint of the kind of rising magnitude of damage we might see from just one projected effect of global warming —extreme weather events.

关于气候变化的具体经济成本很难确定，但如果我们不改变做法，这笔数字无疑会非常庞大。参考保险业的趋势，我们可以得到这样一个暗示，当损害程度上升到一定量时就会造成严重的后果，那么在全球变暖带来的诸多影响里，其中之一就是极端天气现象的产生。

9.At the meeting of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change in Morocco in 2001,

large reinsurance companies（which offer insurance to other insurers）such as Swiss Re and

Munich Re warned of the increase in extreme weather events. According to Munich Re, ―The number of really big weather disasters has increased four-fold if we compare the last decade to the 1960s. The economic losses have leaped seven-fold and the insured losses are

11 times greater.‖ In 2004, Swiss Re warned in a report that the costs of natural disasters,

aggravated by climate change, threatened to double to $150 billion a year in 10 years.

2001年在摩洛哥举行的联合国气候变化框架公约会议上，如瑞士和慕尼黑等大型再保险公司（为其他保险公司提供保险）发出警告表示极端天气事件一再增加。据慕尼黑再保险公司声称：“如果我们把过去十年和20世纪60年代相比较，真正大灾害性天气的数量增加了4倍。经济损失已经扩大了7倍，保险损失也提高了11倍。”2004年瑞士再保险公司在一份报告中警告说，气候变化加剧导致的自然灾害损失在未来10年内可能每年都会翻倍至1500亿美元。

10.More systematically, the much discussed Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change,

commissioned by the British government and authored by Sir Nicholas Stern, former Chief Economist for the World Bank, concludes that economic damages from climate change could be seismic:

由英国委托、前世界银行首席经济学家尼古拉斯·斯特恩爵士撰写的《斯特恩评论气候变化下的经济》引起了广泛讨论，他在其中更系统地总结到气候变化带来的经济损失可能影响巨大：

Our actions over the coming few decades could create risks of major disruption to economic and social activity, later in this century and in the next, on a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and economic depression of the first half of the twentieth century. And it will be difficult or impossible to reverse these changes.

在未来的几十年里，我们的行为可能会对经济和社会活动造成很大破坏，在本世纪末及下世纪，其规模类似二十世纪前半叶大战和经济衰退带来的相关影响。想要逆转这些变化很难，甚至是不可能的。

11.Stern sees the threat of this major disruption coming from a number of factors, including the

increased costs of damage from extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, heat waves, and major storms; the risk that such events affect global financial markets through higher or more volatile in insurance costs; and the risk of abrupt and large-scale climate change. Stern also points to the consequences of climate change on environment and

on human health as economic growth and productivity suffer under the weight of degrading environmental conditions.

斯特恩认为造成这一重大破坏的成因很多，包括：如洪水、干旱、飓风、热浪、大暴雨等极端天气现象所造成的损失越来越大；由于保

险费用更高或更不稳定，此类现象可能影响全球金融市场；同时存在突发大规模气候变化的风险。斯特恩还指出，迫于环境条件恶化，经济增长缓慢，生产力下降，气候变化对环境和人类健康可能带来哪些后果。

Building a Low-Carbon Economy 创建低碳经济

12.To design policies aimed at creating a low-carbon economy, we need to understand first the

extent to which global average temperatures can rise without triggering the dangerous consequences of global warming and, second, how low we need to keep the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases in order to stay within that temperature limit. both of these questions（the temperature limit and the concentration limit）must be answered based on scientific analysis of historic climate data and projections of future conditions, and state-of-the-art computer models paint a stark picture of what is to come.

想要设计旨在创建低碳经济的，我们首先需要了解在哪一范围内全球平均气温上升却不会触发全球变暖的危险后果。第二，在温度极限内要保持多低的大气温室气体浓度。回答这两个问题（温度极限和浓度极限）必须运用以历史气候数据为基础做出的科学分析和对未来状况的预测，以及通过最先进的计算机模型所描绘出鲜明的未来预测图。

13.As noted, global mean temperature is about 0.8°C（1.4°F）above pre-industrial levels, and

another 0.6°C（1.1°F）of further warming is probably built into the system already. Even if we cut off emissions tomorrow, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would continue rising since these gases persist in the atmosphere for a very long time – from decades to thousands of years after they

are first emitted depending on the specific type of greenhouse gas.

如前所述，全球平均气温比工业化前的水平约高0.8 摄氏度（1.4 华氏度），并且将永久性再升高0.6 摄氏度（1.1 华氏度）。即使我们明天停止排放，大气中的温室气体浓度仍会继续上升，因为这些气体在大气中能保留很长时间——不同温室气体一经

排放，可能保留几十年甚至几千年。

14.The evidence is mounting for the need to maintain global average temperatures at no more

than approximately 2.0°C（3.6°F）above pre-industrial levels, a level the Center for American Progress and other s called for in 2005 in ―Meeting the Climate Challenge,‖ the report of the International Climate Change Task Force that was chaired by Sen. Olympia Snowe（R-ME）and U.K. Member of Parliament Stephen Byers. As John Holdren has discussed, the scientific view of an appropriate temperature target has evolved recently downward:

其证据是我们曾努力将全球平均气温保持在不超出工业化前温度约2.0 摄氏度（3.6 华氏度）的水平，这一水平是美国进步中心及其他组织在2005 年撰写的一份名为《迎接气候挑战需要》的报告中所倡导的，该报告隶属于由参议员奥林匹亚·（R-ME）和英国议员斯蒂芬·拜尔斯主持的国际气候变化专题小组。约翰·霍尔德伦讨论到，科学观点所认为的适当温度目标最近已经下调：

Until a few years ago many analysis and groups were suggesting that stabilization of atmospheric concentrations at a level corresponding to a 3°C increase was in fact a suitable target…The last few years of accumulating evidence about impacts already being encountered at only 0.8°C above the pre – industrial average temperature, however, have led many analysis to argue for a more ambitious target, with some（including the

European Union）settling on 2°C.

几年前，许多分析师和团体均表明将大气浓度稳定在上升3摄氏度的水平是合适的目标……但是前几年比工业化前平均温度仅高出的0.8摄氏度所产生的种种影响已经使得许多分析家坚决主张应该制定一个更高目标，一些国家（包括欧盟）将其设定在2 摄氏度。

15.If a temperature target in this range is not maintained, the planet faces serious risks. In a

February 2007 statement to U.N Secretary - General Ban Ki -moon, and the U.K.

Commission on Sustainable Development, Holdren said: 如果这一范围内的温度目标没有实现，地球将面临严重风险。霍尔德伦在2007年2月向联合国秘书长潘基文及联合国可持续发展委员提交的声明中说：

If the build-up of greenhouse gases pushes the global average surface temperature past 2-2.5°C above the pre-industrial level, the danger of intolerable and unmanageable impacts

of climate change on human well-being becomes very high. 如果温室气体累积，将全球平均地表温度提升至比工业化前水平高2-2.5摄氏度的水平，那么人类将难以承受、无法治理的气候变化就非常有可能发生，并对人类的福祉产生影响。

16.Dr. James Hansen, the noted climate scientist at NASA‘s Goddard Institude for Space

Studies, has issued similar warnings:

美国宇航局戈达德空间研究所的著名气候学家詹姆斯·汉森博士发出了类似的警告：We conclude that global warming of more than about 1°C, relative to 2000, will constitut e ―dangerous‖ climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species.

我们的结论是相对2000年的，全球气候变暖超过1摄氏度将构成

“危险”的气候变化，这一点从海平面上升和物种灭绝可能产生的影响就可以做出判断。

17.The IPCC, in its Fourth Assessment Report on Mitigation of Climate Change, published in

May 2007, analyzes the concentration levels that correspond to estimated increases in the global mean average temperature above pre-industrial levels. According to this analysis, keeping average temperature to an increase in the range of 2.0°C to 2.4°C would require a CO2 equivalent concentration – or CO2e, which is a measurement that expresses the global warming potential of all greenhouse gases compared to CO2– in the range of 445 parts per million to 490 parts per million, a highly ambitious target.

IPCC在2007年5月出版的第四次气候变化减缓评估报告中分析到，现在的大气浓度同工业化前全球平均气温预计的升高程度持平。根据这一分析，平均温度保持在 2.0摄氏度到2.4摄氏度的增长范围内将需要CO2等量浓度——或CO2e，即和CO2相比所有温室气体的全球变暖潜力的测量方式——范围为445等份/百万至490等份/百万，这一目标有相当难度。

18.The challenge before us, then, is clear, and nothing is gained by delay. If we ignore the risks

of climate change and oil dependence, or fail to mobilize the political will needed to address them, then we will ultimately be forced into a much more costly and much less effective crash program down the road. A short-sighted, business-as-usual approach to climate change will make it more difficult to cope with increased disaster-related damage in the future and force us to abandon existing infrastructure and equipment and any new physical capital we

improvidently deploy without regard to global warming. 那么，摆在我们面前的挑战就显而易见、刻不容缓了。如果我们

忽视了气候变化和依赖石油的风险，或不能左右来解决它们，那么我们终将被迫采取更加昂贵但又低效的应急方案。应对气候变化采用目光短浅、一切照旧的方法，将来应付越来越多的灾害损失就会变得更难，我们也会被迫放弃不顾全球变暖而投入的现有基础设施设备及任何新的物质资本。

19.Moreover, we would incur a very large opportunity cost, having lost out on the chance to

become the economic leader in developing alternative and more efficient uses of energy.

Instead, we should seize the moment of challenge and opportunity now to start building the low-carbon economy.

此外，我们将与成为开发替代能源和高效能源使用的历史机遇以及经济领导地位失之交臂。相反，我们应该抓住现在的挑战和机遇，开始创建低碳经济。

Unit 4

The Future of Artificial Intelligence 人工智能的未来

By 2050 robot ―brains‖ based on computers that execute 100 trillion instructions per second will start rivaling human intelligence.

到2050 年，每秒能执行100 万亿次命令的机器人的“大脑”将开始与人脑争雄。1.In recent years the mushrooming power, functionality and ubiquity of computers and the

Internet

have

outstripped

early

forecasts

about

technology‘s rate of advancement and usefulness in everyday life. Alert pundits now foresee a world saturated with powerful computer chips, which will increasingly insinuate themselves into our gadgets, dwellings, apparel and even our bodies.

近年来，计算机和互联网如雨后春笋般普及，无处不在且功能强大。他们的发展速度和用处远远超出了当年人们的预测。一些警觉的

权威人士预言说未来世界将充满电脑芯片，它们将不断渗透到我们的小巧装置里，居所里，衣着上甚至我们的身体里。2.Yet a closely related goal has remained stubbornly elusive. In stark contrast to the largely

unanticipated explosion of completely to live up the predictions of the 1950s. In those days experts who were dazzled by the seemingly miraculous calculational ability of computers thought that if only the right software were written, computers could become the artificial brains of sophisticated autonomous robots. Within a decade or two, they believed, such robots would be cleaning our floors, mowing our lawns and, in general, eliminating drudgery from our lives.

但是，类似这样的目标仍很难实现。与超出预期的迅速迅猛发展成为主流的计算机形成鲜明对比的是，对机器人技术研发的所有努力甚至未能达到二十世纪五十年代对于机器人技术发展的预测。那时候，专家们为计算机看起来奇迹般的运算能力所惊叹，相信只要写出正确的软件，计算机就能成为复杂的自主机器人的人工大脑。他们相信，在十年或二十年内，这样的机器人将为我们清扫地板，修剪草坪，简而言之，它们将把我们从苦活累活中解脱出来。

3.Obviously, it hadn‘t turned out that way. It is true that industrial robots have transformed the

manufacture of automobiles, among other products. But that kind of automation is a far cry

from the versatile, mobile, autonomous creations that so many scientists and engineers have hoped for. In pursuit of such robots, waves of researchers have grown disheartened and scores of start-up companies have gone out of business.

很明显的，机器人的发展并不像专家们所预言的那样。确实，除了很多产品之外，工业机器人的出现还改变了汽车的生产方式。但是这种自动化远远不及科学家和工程师们所希望的多功能、可移动、自

主的机器人。在追求制造这种机器人的过程中，一波又一波的科学家失去了信心，许多的新兴公司也因其破产。

4.It is not the mechanical ―body‖ that is unattainable; articulated arms and other moving

mechanisms adequate for manual work already exist, as the industrial robots attest. Rather it is the computer-based artificial brain that is still well below the level of sophistication needed to build a humanlike robot.

并不是机器人的“身体”无法实现；关节灵活的机械手臂和其他可活动的机械早已经存在，工业机器人正是证明。真正无法企及的是以计算机为基础的人工“大脑”，目前的技术的复杂程度仍达不到建造一个类似人类的机器人。

5.Nevertheless, I am convinced that the decades-old dream of a useful, general-purpose

autonomous robot will be realized in the not too distant future. In the near future we will see mobile robots as big as people but with cognitive abilities similar in many respects to those of a lizard. The machines will be capable of carrying out simple chores, such as vacuuming, dusting, delivering packages and taking out the garbage. By 2040, I believe, we will finally achieve the original goal of robotics and a thematic mainstay of science fiction: a freely moving machine with the intellectual capabilities of a human being.

不过，我仍然坚信，几十年来对高效的，多用途的自主机器人的梦想将在不远的将来实现。到那时，我们能看到和人类一样大小的机器人，但智力上在很多方面都类似蜥蜴。它们将能够执行简单的工作，比如吸尘，打扫，递送包裹，扔垃圾等。我相信，到2040年，我们将最终达到机器人技术的终极目标和科幻小说中的主题：一个具有人类智力水平的可自由移动的机器人。

Reasons for Optimism

乐观的理由

6.In light of what I have just described as a history of largely unfulfilled goals in robotics, why

do

I

believe

that

rapid

progress

and

stunning

accomplishments are in the offing? My

confidence is based on recent developments in electronics and software, as well as on my own observations of robots, computers and even insects, reptiles and other living things over the past 30 years.

考虑到我之前所说的在机器人技术历史上众多未达成的目标，为什么还相信机器人技术的快速发展和惊人成就很快就会到来呢？我的自信建立在电子技术和软件技术最近的发展上，以及我在过去的30 多年里对机器人，计算机，甚至是昆虫，爬行动物和其他生物的观察。

7.The single best reason for optimism is the soaring performance in recent years of

mass-produced computers.

最好的理由是近年来大规模生产的计算机的突出表现。

8.In the 1990s computer power suitable for controlling a research robot shot through 10

million instructions per second（MIPS）, 100 MIPS and has lately reached 50,000 MIPS in a few high-end desktop computers with multiple processors.

在二十世纪九十年代，控制一个研究型机器人的计算机的运算能力从每秒1000 万次（10MIPS），提升到了100MIPS，而现在少数高端的具有多处理器的台式机就达到了50,000MIPS。

9.For example, in October 1995 an experimental vehicle called Navlab V crossed the U.S.

from Washington, D.C., to San Diego, driving itself more than 95 percent of the time. The vehicle‘s self-driving and navigational system was built around a 25-MIPS laptop based on

a microprocessor by Sun Microsystems.

比方说，1995 年10 月，Navlab V，一台实验性的车辆，从华盛顿出发，穿越美国到达圣地亚哥，其中95%的时间都是自动驾驶的。这辆车的自动驾驶和导航系统是建立在一个运算能力在25MIPS 的笔记本电脑的微处理器上的，其处理器是由“太阳微系统”公司生产的。

10.Still, computers are no match today for humans in such functions as recognition and

navigation. The explanation of this apparent paradox follows from the fact that the human brain, in its entirety, is not a true programmable, general-purpose computer (what computer scientists refer to as a universal machine; almost all computers nowadays are examples of such machines).

但时至今日，电脑在识别和导航功能上仍与人脑相去甚远。专家因此迷惑了多年，毕

竟计算机在运算能力上远超人类。对于这个似非而是的事实的解释最终归结于一点，人脑从整体上说，并不是一个可编程的，多用途的计算机（有些计算机科学家称之为万用机；几乎所有当代的计算机都是这类机器的范例）。

11.To understand why this is requires an evolutionary perspective. To survive, our early

ancestors had to do several things repeatedly and very well: locate food, escape predators, mate and protect offspring. Those tasks depended strongly on the brain‘s ability to recognize and navigate. Honed by hundreds of millions of years of evolution, the brain became a kind of ultrasophisticated – but special-purpose – computer.

需要进化论的视角才能理解这种现象的原因。为了生存，我们的祖先不得不重复去做几件事情并努力将其做到最好：寻找事物，躲避食肉动物，交配、保护后代。这些任务对于大脑的识别和导航能力的要求很高。经过几百万年的进化，人脑成为了超级复杂但有特定目的

的计算机。

12.The ability to do mathematical calculations, of course, was irrelevant for survival.

Nevertheless, as language transformed human culture, at least a small part of our brains evolved into a universal machine of sorts. One of the hallmarks of such a machine is its ability to follow an arbitrary set of instructions, and with language, such instructions could be transmitted and carried out. But because we visualize numbers as complex shapes, write them down and perform other such functions, we process digits in a monumentally awkward and inefficient way. We use hundreds of billions of neurons to do in minutes what hundreds of them, speciall y ―rewired‖ and arranged for calculation, could do in milliseconds.

数字运算的能力当然是和生存无关的。但是，语言改变了人类文化，因此至少人脑的一小部分进化成了某种通用机。这种机器的一个标志就是可以执行一组任意的命令，而通过语言，这样的命令就可以被转达进而被执行。但因为人类将数字想象成复杂的形状，将其写下并做些其他类似这样的事，所以导致人类以一种相当低效和难以操纵的方式来处理数据。人类用成百亿的神经元花好几分钟所作的运算，几百台专门为运算所设置的计算机在几毫秒内就能做完。

13.A tiny minority of people are born with the ability to do seemingly amazing mental

calculations. In absolute terms, it‘s not so amazing: they calculate at a rate perhaps 100times that of the average person. Computers, by comparison, are millions or billions of times faster.

有少数人天生具有看起来令人惊奇的心算能力。绝对来讲，其实这样的心算能力并没有多么好惊奇的。他们计算的速率大概是普通人的100 倍左右。而计算机，是常人的百万甚至千万倍。

Can Hardware Simulate Wetware?

硬件可以模拟人脑吗？

14.The challenge facing roboticists is to take general-purpose computers and program them to

match the largely special-purpose human brain, with its ultraoptimized perceptual inheritance and other peculiar evolutionary traits. Today‘s robot-controlling computers are much too feeble to be applied successfully in that role, but it is only a matter of time before they are up to the task.

机器人专家面临的挑战是给多功能计算机编程来与目的非常特定的人脑功能匹敌，包括其超优化的感知遗传及其他一些特有的进化特征。当今操控机器人的电脑还仍无力满足这样的需求，但胜任这项任务只是时间问题。

15.Implicit in my assertion that computers will eventually be capable of the same kind of

perception, cognition and thought as humans is the idea that a sufficiently advanced and sophisticated artificial system –for example, an electronic one –can be made and programmed to do the same thing as the human nervous system, including the brain. This issue is controversial in some circles right now, and there is room for brilliant people to disagree.

我在对计算机最终将拥有和人类一样的感知、认知和思考能力的断言之中，不言自明地表达出这样一个想法，就是能够制造出一种相当尖端复杂的人工系统——如电子系统——并使其在编程之后能够执行和人类的神经系统（包括大脑）一样的功能。这个问题在一些领域颇具争议，欢迎有识之士持有异义。

16.At the crux of the matter is the question of whether biological structure and behavior arise

entirely from physical law and whether, moreover, physical law is computable – that is to say, amenable to computer simulation. My view is that there is no good scientific evidence

to negate either of these propositions. On the contrary, there are compelling indications that both are true.

问题的核心在于是否生物结构和生物行为完全建立在物理定律之上；是否物理定律可被计算，也就是说，可以被计算机模拟。我的观点是并没有充分的科学证据来否定这

两项假设。相反却有很多不得不注意的迹象表面两项假设都是真的。

17.Molecular biology and neuroscience are steadily uncovering the physical mechanisms

underlying life and mind but so far have addressed mainly the simpler mechanisms.

Evidence that simple functions can be composed to produce the higher capabilities of nervous systems comes from programs that read, recognize speech, guide robot arms to assemble tight components by feel, classify chemicals by artificial smell and taste, reason about abstract matters, and so on. Of course, computers and robots today fall far short of broad human or even animal competence. But that situation is understandable in light of an analysis that concludes that today‘s computers are onl y powerful enough to function like insect nervous systems. And, in my experience, robots do indeed perform like insects on simple tasks.

分子生物学和神经科学正在逐步解开生命和意识的基础，即物理机制的奥秘。但是目前只解释了一些简单的机制。来源于朗读、言语辨认、通过感觉指引机械手组装紧凑的元件、通过人造的嗅觉和味觉分辨化学物、思考抽象问题等一系列试验的证据表明，简单的功能可以被组合起来实现神经系统的更高功能。当然，当今的计算机和机器人还远远不能达到人类甚至是动物的能力，但考虑到前面所说的当今的计算机只具备像昆虫的神经系统一般的能力，这样的差距也就可以理解了。并且，根据我的经验，机器人执行一些简单的任务时确实像

昆虫一样。

18.Ants, for example, can follow scent trails but become disoriented when the trail is

interrupted. Moths follow pheromone trails and also use the moon for guidance. Similarly, many commercial robots can follow guide wires installed below the surface they move over, and some orient themselves using lasers that read bar codes on walls.

举个例子，蚂蚁，可以遵从气味的路线，但是当它的气味路线受到影响时就会迷路；

蛾子跟随信息素路线并使用月亮作为导向。同样的，许多商务用机器人可以遵从预先铺设在地下的线路来移动，还有一些通过使用激光扫描墙上的条形码来导向。

19.If my assumption that greater computer power will eventually lead to human-level mental

capabilities is true, we can expect robots to match and surpass the capacity of various animals and then finally humans as computer-processing rates rise sufficiently high. If on the other hand the assumption is wrong, we will someday find specific animal or human skills that elude implementation in robots even after they have enough computer power to

match the whole brain. That would set the stage for a fascinating scientific challenge – to somehow isolate and identify the fundamental ability that brains have and that computers lack. But there is no evidence yet for such a missing principle.

如果我对于更强的计算机运算水平会最终达到等同于人类水平的思考能力的假设成立的话，我们就可以期待随着计算机处理速率达到相当高的速度时，机器人的能力达到并超越许多动物的能力，最终超越人类的水平。而如果这个假设不成立的话，我们在未来也会发现，即使在计算机运算能力已经达到人类水平的思考能力情况下，在机器人身上不能够执行的动物或人的某种能力。这将为更加迷人的科学挑

战创造条件—能分离并确认出人脑所拥有而计算机缺少的最根本的能力。但目前还没有证据证实有这样的情况。

20.The second proposition, that physical law is amenable to computer simulation, is

increasingly beyond dispute. Scientists and engineers have already produced countless useful simulations, at various levels of abstraction and approximation, of everything from automobile crashes to the ―color‖ forces that hold quarks and gluons together to make up protons and neutrons.

第二个假设，物理定律可以被计算机模拟这一点，是越来越毫无疑问了。科学家和工程师已经制造出了无数高效的模拟程序，包含从模拟车祸到模拟使夸克和胶子结合在一起组成质子和中子的“色彩”力量。→科学家和工程师已经在抽象和概算的不同层面，进行了无数次有效仿真，比如从模拟车祸到模拟―色彩‖力量，色彩能使夸克和胶子结合构成质子和中子。

Fast Replay 快速重放

21.Like competent but instinct-ruled reptiles, first-generation universal robots will handle only

contingencies explicitly covered in their application programs. Unable to adapt to changing circumstances, they will often perform inefficiently or not at all.

就像拥有一定能力但为直觉所控制的爬行动物一样，第一代的通用机器人仅能处理它们的应用程序中所包含的任务。因为无法适应改变的环境，所以它们的工作可能很低效甚至根本无法工作。

22.A second generation of universal robot with a mouse like 100,000 MIPS will adapt as the

first generation does not and will even be trainable. Besides application programs, such

robots would host a suite of software ―conditioning

modules‖ that would g enerate positive and negative reinforcement signals in predefined circumstances. For example, doing jobs fast and keeping its batteries charged will be positive; hitting or breaking something will be negative. There will be other ways to accomplish each stage of an application program, from the minutely specific (grasp the handle underhand or overhand) to the broadly general (work indoors or outdoors). As jobs are repeated, alternatives that result in positive reinforcement will be favored, those with negative outcomes shunned. Slowly but surely, second-generation robots will work increasingly well.

第二代通用类机器人将具备像老鼠一般的100，000MIPS 的运算能力，因此可以做到第一代机器人所不能的，甚至可以被训练。除了应用程序以外，这种机器人将安装一套叫做―条件模块‖的软件，这种软件在预设的环境下会生成肯定或否定的增强信号。

举例来说，快速工作和保持电池充电的行为会得到肯定的信号；而碰撞或打碎东西得到否定信号。另外还有不同的方式来完成每个应用程序的过程，从特别精细的（比如向上还是向下抓把手）到较为宽泛的（比如在室内还是室外工作）都可以涵盖到。随着工作的重复，那些产生积极结果信号的行为将被肯定，而消极的结果会被避免。虽然缓慢，但第二代机器人一定会工作的越来越好。

23.A monkeylike five million MIPS will permit a third generation of robots to learn very

quickly from mental rehearsals in simulations that model physical, cultural and psychological factors. Physical properties include shape, weight, strength, texture and appearance of things, and ways to handle them. Cultural aspects include a thing‘s name, value, proper location and purpose. Psychological factors, applied to humans and robots alike, include goals, beliefs, feelings and preferences. Developing the simulators will be a

huge undertaking involving thousands of programmers and experience-gathering robots. The simulation would track external events and tune its models to keep them faithful to reality. It would let a robot learn a skill by imitation and afford a kind of consciousness. Asked why there are candles on the table, a third-generation robot might consult its simulation of house, owner and self to reply that it put them there because its owner likes candlelit dinners and it likes to please its owner. Further queries would elicit more details about a simple inner mental life concerned only with concrete situations and people in its work area.

像猴子一样，拥有五百万MIPS 运算能力的第三代机器人，通过模拟中的思维演练，

将能很快地模仿物理、文化和心理要素。物理属性包含形状、重量、力量、质地和事物的外表，还有处理它们的方式。文化方面包含事物的名称、价值、合适的位置和用途。心理因素，适用于人类和机器人，包括，目标、信仰、感觉和喜恶。制造模拟器将会是一项艰巨的任务，涉及成千上万的编成人员和试验用机器人。模拟将会追踪外部事件，调试模式使其适应现实需要。它可以使机器人通过模仿来学习技能并使其具备一定的意识。当被问到为什么桌子上有蜡烛的时候，第三代机器人会搜索其程序中对房间、主人还有自己的模拟程式并得出这样的回答，即，它把蜡烛放置在桌子上的原因是主人喜欢吃烛光晚餐而它想要取悦主人。更深层次的问题将会的到更多关于简单内心活动的一些细节，而这些内心活动只与具体情境和身处它所在区域的人有关。

24.Fourth-generation universal robots with a humanlike 100 million MIPS will be able to

abstract and generalize. They will result from melding powerful reasoning programs to third-generation machines. These reasoning programs will be the far more sophisticated

descendants of today‘s theorem provers and expert systems, which mimic human reasoning to make medical diagnoses, schedule routes, make financial decisions, configure computer systems, analyze seismic data to locate oil deposits, and so on.

通用机器人具备像人一样的一亿MIPS 的运算能力，它们能够提取、概括信息。

它们将强大的推理程序融合进了第三代机器人。这些推理程序是当今的定理证明程序和专业系统的更为复杂的后代，能够模仿人类的思维过程来做出医学诊断、路线计划、金融决策、计算机系统配置、地震数据分析以及定位原油矿藏等。

25.Properly educated, the resulting robots will become quite formidable. In fact, I am sure they

will outperform us in any conceivable area of endeavor, intelligence or physical. Inevitably, such a development will lead to a fundamental restructuring of our society. Entire corporations will exist without any human employees or investors at all. Humans will play a pivotal role in formulating the intricate complex of laws that will govern corporate behavior.

Ultimately, though, it is likely that our descendants will cease to work in the sense that we do now. They will probably occupy their days with a variety of social, recreational and artistic pursuits, not unlike today‘s comfortable retirees or the wealthy leisure classes.

通过正确的教育，机器人将会变得相当令人惊叹。实际上，我确信在任何能想到的领域，不管是智力还是体力，机器人终将比人类做的更好。而这必然给社会带来重大的变革。整个公司将没有一位人类雇员或投资者。在制定复杂的用于管理公司行为的法

规方面，人类将扮演相当重要的角色。但是最终，我们的后代也许不会像我们现在这样工作。他们的生活将充满了各种各样社交、休闲和艺术活动，就像当今过着舒适退休生活的人或富有又休闲的人们

一样。

26.The path I‘ve outlined roughly recapitulates the evolution of human intelligence –but 10

million times more rapidly. It suggests that robot intelligence will surpass our own well before 2050. In that case, mass-produced, fully educated robot scientists working diligently, cheaply, rapidly and increasingly effectively will ensure that most of what science knows in 2050 will have been discovered by our artificial progeny!

我所勾画的路线扼要的陈述了人类智能的发展——但比它的发展快一千万倍。在2050 年之前机器人将超越我们人类。如果那样的话，大量生产的、受到良好教育的机器人科学家勤奋的、廉价的、快速的、越来越高效的工作将保证2050 年大部分的科学发现都是我们的人工后代——机器人的功劳！